– FY20: $1.6b – Total UGF ( $527 million)
o $1.1b – Petro ( $461 million)
o $.5b – Non-Petro ( $67 million)
– FY21: $1.2b – Total UGF ( $815 million)
o $.7b – Petro ( $693 million)
o $.4b – Non-Petro ( $121 million)
o $1.1b – Petro ( $461 million)
o $.5b – Non-Petro ( $67 million)
– FY21: $1.2b – Total UGF ( $815 million)
o $.7b – Petro ( $693 million)
o $.4b – Non-Petro ( $121 million)
Spring 2020 UGF Revenue Forecast
FY20
$1,553.00
FY21
$1,128.10
FY22
$1,282.20
FY23
$1,396.20
FY24
$1,462.90
FY25
$1,504.80
FY26
$1,531.90
FY27
$1,566.00
FY28
$1,679.30
FY29
$1,781.40
– Oil production taxes collapsed in FY14/15. They appeared to be on the upswing over the last few years as prices stabilized, but the price crash has again drastically reduced production taxes to just over $100m in some years.
Royalties, which make up the vast majority of petroleum and overall UGF revenue, will also suffer from the price collapse and have the dual impact of reducing UGF and direct deposits to the PF
If recent losses to the PF stick (as of now, around 13% or about $9billion), then the POMV will begin to be reduced beginning in FY20
– Assumes widespread virus-related shutdowns continue for the second half of FY 2020.
– Assumes shutdowns are reversed during the first half of FY2021 (July – December 2020), and that overall economic activity is back to baseline levels by FY 2022 (July 2021+)
– Investment Revenue:
o Based on the “low projection” from the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation (APFC) for FY 2020 and then the median projection for FY 2021 on. For FY 2020 this represents an overall return to the fund of about -0.5% for the year.
o For FY 2021 on, assumes 7% annual overall returns to the fund.
Tourism
o Assumes that the 2020 summer tourism season (FY 2020-2021) is largely lost with no cruise ship visits and minimal independent tourists.
o The 2021 summer season (FY 2021-2022) is expected to proceed, including resumption of cruise ship visits, but only at 75% of previously expected levels.
Fish and Mining
– Fish and mining reduced to reflect lower demand/work supply issues and industrial metal prices respectively
Motor fuel tax
– Motor fuel taxes assumes a 25% reduction in fuel use for the remainder of FY 2020, and a 5% reduction compared to baseline for FY21.
– Assumes shutdowns are reversed during the first half of FY2021 (July – December 2020), and that overall economic activity is back to baseline levels by FY 2022 (July 2021+)
– Investment Revenue:
o Based on the “low projection” from the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation (APFC) for FY 2020 and then the median projection for FY 2021 on. For FY 2020 this represents an overall return to the fund of about -0.5% for the year.
o For FY 2021 on, assumes 7% annual overall returns to the fund.
Tourism
o Assumes that the 2020 summer tourism season (FY 2020-2021) is largely lost with no cruise ship visits and minimal independent tourists.
o The 2021 summer season (FY 2021-2022) is expected to proceed, including resumption of cruise ship visits, but only at 75% of previously expected levels.
Fish and Mining
– Fish and mining reduced to reflect lower demand/work supply issues and industrial metal prices respectively
Motor fuel tax
– Motor fuel taxes assumes a 25% reduction in fuel use for the remainder of FY 2020, and a 5% reduction compared to baseline for FY21.
Main Takeaways:
– Oil price crash is impacting production tax and royalty revenue, reducing FY2 and FY21 by a combined $1.2 billion
– Revenue adjustment vs. the 4/3 Leg. Finance publication is about $127 million for FY20 and $96 million for FY21, reducing the projected end-year FY21 CBRF balance from $411 million to $189 million.
– Market crash has affected PF value. POMV is based on the market value of the fund. Depending on how much is recovered, losses will reduce future POMV. 2020 Spring Forecast shows a reduction of some $300m/year in the annual POMV payout in out years (FY23 is $123m less in POMV than Fall Forecast)
– Oil production forecast was prepared before crash and as such, wasn’t revised further to incorporate recent events. Yet to be seen what effect that will have on production
– With Pikka and Willow delayed, this likely means pushing back first oil by a year or two (2027/2028). Both projects have significant sunk cost so it would be surprising if the projects were cancelled altogether.
– Spring forecast sees oil price at $53, its highest, in 2029. Price is $37/barrel for FY21 and $41 for FY22
– Oil price crash is impacting production tax and royalty revenue, reducing FY2 and FY21 by a combined $1.2 billion
– Revenue adjustment vs. the 4/3 Leg. Finance publication is about $127 million for FY20 and $96 million for FY21, reducing the projected end-year FY21 CBRF balance from $411 million to $189 million.
– Market crash has affected PF value. POMV is based on the market value of the fund. Depending on how much is recovered, losses will reduce future POMV. 2020 Spring Forecast shows a reduction of some $300m/year in the annual POMV payout in out years (FY23 is $123m less in POMV than Fall Forecast)
– Oil production forecast was prepared before crash and as such, wasn’t revised further to incorporate recent events. Yet to be seen what effect that will have on production
– With Pikka and Willow delayed, this likely means pushing back first oil by a year or two (2027/2028). Both projects have significant sunk cost so it would be surprising if the projects were cancelled altogether.
– Spring forecast sees oil price at $53, its highest, in 2029. Price is $37/barrel for FY21 and $41 for FY22