NEWS: More Declining Production: Updated Numbers Show Decline Continues at Least to 2024

Rep. Les Gara

Rep. Gara calls for information missing from 2013 oil tax debate

February 10, 2014 

JUNEAU – Today, upon learning the Alaska Department of Revenue now predicts oil production declines to accelerate through 2024, down to 285,000 barrels per day, Representative Les Gara (D-Anchorage) called on the Parnell administration to provide information about what has changed since its push last session to roll back oil production taxes.

“I don’t recall the governor’s paid oil consultants telling us that if we gave Exxon, BP and ConocoPhillips over $10 billion of our oil revenue the next decade, production would fall nearly in half by 2024.  I do remember rosy ‘aspirations’ by Commissioner Dan Sullivan and the governor of four times that much oil,” said Gara. “This giveaway is a pathway to poverty, and it is going to roll back jobs, educational achievement, and opportunity unless the public repeals it in August.”

During a presentation by the Office of Management and Budget to the House Finance Committee this afternoon, administration officials presented the state’s most likely production forecast estimate.  It shows a 40% fall in production under the new oil law from 508,000 barrels per day this year to 285,000 barrels a day in 2024. In the fiscal note for SB21 (2013), the Department of Revenue gave three “Additional Production Scenarios” to show the impacts of the tax cut should it spark various levels of new oil production. It never showed a scenario of what would happen if production declined at a faster rate than previously forecast, as the department now predicts.

Gara called for the administration to show any presentation by his cabinet or hired administration experts in 2013 that SB 21 would lower production to 285,000 barrels a day.

Commissioner Sullivan Senate resources testimony:

Commissioner Sullivan addressing the goal at Fairbanks Chamber, January 2013:

Governor Parnell announces goal to increase production to a million barrels in ten years, March 30, 2011 press release:

Today’s presentation from the Alaska Office of Management and Budget:



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